The Donbas region that President Trump’s reported peace plan would cede to Russia encompasses territories that have formed the core of Moscow’s military objectives since 2014. The area includes Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, industrialized territories that Russia partially occupied following its initial invasion and has sought to fully capture throughout the current full-scale war. Surrendering complete control of Donbas would represent fulfillment of Russia’s long-stated territorial ambitions in eastern Ukraine, ratifying gains achieved through nearly a decade of military aggression and hybrid warfare.
Russian-backed separatists declared “people’s republics” in portions of Donetsk and Luhansk in 2014, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and initial military intervention. These separatist-controlled areas existed in contested status for eight years, with Ukraine maintaining control over significant portions of both oblasts while Russia and its proxies held other sections. The 2022 full-scale invasion explicitly aimed at completing Donbas capture, with Russian forces making this objective central to their military operations even as broader advances toward Kyiv and other regions stalled.
The Donbas region contains significant industrial infrastructure, natural resources, and strategic transportation routes that enhance its value beyond purely territorial considerations. Coal mining, metallurgical production, and heavy manufacturing concentrated in this area made it historically central to Ukrainian economic output. Russian control would transfer these economic assets while denying them to Ukraine, creating long-term economic consequences extending beyond immediate territorial losses. Additionally, Donbas borders Russia directly, providing Moscow with strategic depth and simplified logistics for potential future military operations.
President Zelenskyy’s emphasis on preventing future Russian invasions directly relates to concerns that surrendering Donbas would not satisfy Moscow’s territorial ambitions but rather encourage additional aggression. Historical precedent from 2014 suggests Russian willingness to progressively expand territorial control when international responses prove inadequate to deter continued aggression. European leaders share these concerns, recognizing that Donbas surrender without robust security guarantees could establish precedent for future territorial seizures throughout the region.
Thursday’s coalition video conference will address whether international partners accept Trump’s reported proposal to surrender Donbas or support Ukrainian resistance to terms that would fulfill Russia’s decade-long territorial objectives. President Zelenskyy’s revised peace framework presumably offers alternative approaches that address Russian security concerns without rewarding aggression through territorial concessions of such magnitude. However, as Russian forces continue advancing to consolidate physical control over Donbas territories, the practical difficulty of maintaining Ukrainian sovereignty over areas Moscow already occupies creates compelling pressure to accept diplomatic recognition of battlefield realities regardless of longer-term precedent concerns.